Understanding Intermodel Diversity When Simulating the Time of Emergence…

Using a statistical method, we examined the time of emergence (ToE), which was defined as the year when the global mean surface temperature (GMST) trend exceeds the trend explained by internal variability, using 33 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models for 1861–2100. We found that the GMST trend explained by internal variability showed minimal changes even though the GMST trend rapidly increased under the Representative Climate Pathway 8.5 scenario. Read more “Understanding Intermodel Diversity When Simulating the Time of Emergence in CMIP5 Climate Models” →