Predicting the climate more than a few weeks in advance requires forecasters to bet on more than one computer model, similar to the method of diversifying an investment portfolio. Many earlier studies have shown that the combination of predictions generated by different computer models, known as a multi‐model ensemble, almost always achieves better forecast skill than using a single model alone. The North American Multi‐Model Ensemble (NMME), a sub-seasonal and seasonal prediction system combining individual North American state‐of‐the‐art climate prediction models, has become an integral part of sub-seasonal and seasonal research and applications. Read more “Evolution of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)”
Dr. Benjamin Kirtman is the program director for the physical science and engineering at the Center for computational science. He is also a Professor in the Division of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), where he also serves as the Associate Dean for Research. Prior to joining the University of Miami, Dr. Kirtman was a Professor at George Mason University.